Fall 1994 (v6n4)
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and its Counties 1990-2040.
California Department of
Finance, Demographic Research Unit, Report 93P-1. 1993.
The California Water Plan Update. Vol. / and /1.
California Department of
Water Resources, Draft Bulletin 160-93. 1993.
Two recent state reports
raise disturbing questions about the sustainability of California agriculture
in the face of population growth and water scarcity.
Population Projections
by Race/Ethnicity for California and its Counties 1990-2040. The Demographic
Research Unit of the California Department of Finance predicts that the
state's population will reach 63 million by the year 2040, more than double
the current 29 million. Prime agricultural land is particularly threatened
by the concentration of new growth in the Central Valley, where the total
population will triple to more than 15 million. Many of the state's most
productive agricultural counties are slated to grow at more than double
the 2.26 percent rate for the state as a whole.
Assuming current residential
density patterns, a Central Valley population of 15 million would consume
another 1 million acres of productive valley floor agricultural land,
resulting in a potential loss to the agricultural economy of $1.267 billion
dollars, measured in 1990 dollars. Indirect economic losses on non-farm
industries would make this figure even higher.
The California Water Plan
Update. Vol. I and II. Confirmation of this stark economic prospect
for agriculture can be found in the new water budget developed by the
California Department of Water Resources. For the first time, this budget
admits that total demand for water will outstrip supplies by the year
2020. The question becomes, how will the limited water supply be distributed
among agricultural, urban and environmental interests?
According to DWR, agriculture's
share of the total water supply will decrease over the next 30
years, while urban and environmental uses will increase. The calculations
use 1990 as the base year, and include water from all sources (i.e., including
groundwater and rivers in addition to water projects), The 1990 figures
show that agriculture uses about 42 percent of the state's water supplies
(rather than the 80 percent figure more commonly cited which represents
agriculture's share of developed water supplies from the state and federal
water projects only). Net urban demand is 11 percent, environmental demand
44 percent and miscellaneous uses 3 percent.
By 2020 agriculture's share
of the total state water supply will drop from 42 percent to 38 percent,
while the urban share increases from 11 percent to 16 percent (an increase
of 57 percent over 1990 levels). Environmental demand, measured for the
first time by DWR in this report, will remain at 44 percent. This category
includes existing in-stream flow requirements, wild and scenic river flows,
Bay-Delta protection requirements, fishery requirements, and supplies
for managed freshwater wetlands.
For agriculture, these numbers suggest a decline in agricultural water use of approximately 1.9 million acre-feet in an average year. Where will this decline come from? According to the report, the bulk of the decrease in agricultural water use will come from a permanent retirement of 400,000 acres of agricultural land (by 2020) on which new urban development will take place. Another 45,000 acres of land with drainage problems due to selenium problems is also expected to be retired.
Reviewer's Comments
The evidence from these two
reports evokes a disturbing picture for agriculture in California's Great
Central Valley. Do we really want a future in which one can drive the
highway 99 corridor from Sacramento to Fresno without any sense of being
in an agricultural region? What changes will be required so that the predictions
from these reports do not become a self-fulfilling prophecy?
It is apparent that California
agriculture faces a precipitous decline unless a new covenant is forged
between urban and agricultural interests. From the urban community, we
need a commitment to rational planning processes that permanently protect
prime agricultural soils and take growth management seriously. From the
agricultural community, we need a transition to agricultural practices
that preserve environmental quality and are compatible with sites on the
fringes of residential areas.
Sustainable agriculture can
play a critical role in helping agriculture make these needed changes.
By enabling farmers to reduce chemical use (and still remain profitable),
it can dramatically reduce agriculture's contribution to non-point source
water pollution. This in turn will increase the supply of clean water
available for urban and environmental uses. By reducing or eliminating
chemical applications, and by improving soil quality, it can reduce agriculture's
contribution of dust and chemicals to particulate pollution. Furthermore,
farms that use fewer chemicals will be considered better neighbors to
urban areas. This can help expand political support for agriculture among
urban residents. The emphasis in sustainable agriculture on direct marketing,
farmers' markets, composting businesses and other direct economic ties
between local farmers and their communities can enhance this support.
Ultimately, the future of
agriculture in California's Central Valley will require a new vision of
the integral relationship between agriculture and community life. Perhaps
the greatest contribution of sustainable agriculture to California's future
is its attempt, however imperfect, to offer alternatives to the status
quo for family farms, rural communities, farmworkers, consumers and others
involved in our food system. Out of a new dialogue between urban and rural
California lies the promise that agriculture may yet have a healthy future
in this state.
Population Projections
by Race/Ethnicity for California and its Counties 1990-2040, is available
from the California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit,
915 L Street, 8th Floor, Sacramento, CA 95814. Tel. (916) 445-3878
The California Water Plan
Update is available from the California Department of Water Resources,
1416 9th Street, Sacramento, CA 95814. Tel. (916) 653-1097.
(DCC.006)
Contributed by Dave Campbell
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